The researchers concluded that the recent slowing in global surface warming is part of natural climate fluctuations. But the energy budget is still out of balance, which translates into heat no matter where it accumulates. Loeb said, “You could think of the oceans as causing a thermal lag on the system, and over time, the system will tend to warm up to try and restore the equilibrium. But it takes place over a long period of time because of the ocean’s ability to store heat.” Earth’s climate system perpetually tries to restore the balance, and this absorbed heat will eventually make its way back into the atmosphere.
Over the long term, additional heat leads to sea level rise. “When the oceans warm, they expand. And that raises sea level,” Allan said. “On the other hand, when land warms, and glaciers and ice sheets melt, that adds extra water to the ocean, which also raises sea level.” It takes hundreds of years for heat to penetrate to the depths of the ocean and for giant ice sheets to melt. “That’s why sea level rise is a multi-century problem,” said Allan.
Heat can travel through the oceans and influence climate differently in different parts of the world. For instance, research involving NASA indicates that heat accumulating beneath the Pacific Ocean surface may have traveled to the Indian Ocean. Scientists are still trying to understand which climate patterns are part of natural variability, and which are being changed by human activity. “We’re only actually sampling a few of the bumps and dips of decadal variations,” Allan said. “Continued tracking of Earth’s energy balance is crucial for gauging how future warming will progress as human activities continue to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.” And this has major implications for the consequent impacts on human societies and the ecosystems upon which they depend.
References
Allan, R. P., C. Liu, N. G. Loeb, M. D. Palmer, M. Roberts, D. Smith, and P.-L. Vidale. 2014. Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012. Geophysical Research Letters 41: 5,588–5,597. doi:10.1002/2014GL060962
Loeb, N. G., H. Wang, A. Cheng, S. Kato, J. T. Fasullo, K.-M. Xu, and R. P. Allan. 2015. Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2766-z
NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC). CERES Energy Balance and Filled Top of the Atmosphere (EBAF-TOA) Ed2.7, Hampton, VA, USA.
NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC). Earth Radiation Budget Satellite Wide Field-of-View (ERBS WFOV) 3.1, Hampton, VA, USA.
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NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC)
Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES)
Earth Radiation Budget Satellite Nonscanner Wide Field-of-View (ERBS WFOV) instrument
About the remote sensing data |
Satellites | Terra and Aqua | Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) |
Sensors | Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) | Wide Field-of-View (WFOV) Nonscanner |
Data sets | CERES EBAF Ed2.7 | ERBS WFOV 3.1 |
Resolution | 1 x 1 degree | 10 x 10 degree |
Parameters | Radiance | Radiance |
DAACs | NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) | NASA ASDC |