Science Objectives
The authors investigated if changes in non-seismic phenomena, including land surface temperature (LST), total electron content (TEC), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and air temperature (AT) are precursors for seismic activity. For their study, the authors examined data before and after two strong moment magnitude (Mw) 6.4 and Mw 6.3 earthquakes in the East Azerbaijan Province of northwest Iran that occurred on August 11, 2012.
Instruments Used
For the LST component of their study, the authors used Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Daily LST (MOD11A1) data to examine the LST of the area 20 days before and 5 days after these two earthquakes. Previous research shows that an increase in stress across a causative fault line leads to micro fracturing and subsurface degassing that increases LST. Therefore, detection of an increase in LST could warn us of an impending earthquake.
Major Findings
The authors used a generalized split-window algorithm to retrieve the LST values within 30 kilometers (19 miles) of the epicenter and then identified the standard deviation of the values. A ±2 standard deviation (95 percent confidence level) interval was considered to be an anomaly indicator measure. The highest daytime LST values observed were on July 24 and 26, shown in the image to the left, as well as August 9 and 16. The values on August 16 were attributed to aftershocks and additional moderate earthquakes at the epicenter. The highest nighttime LST values were observed two days before and two days after the earthquakes. The mean daytime LST increased from July 30 to the day of the earthquakes, but after the earthquakes the LST was more stable. A decrease in nighttime LST of 5.5-6.3 °C was found compared to the mean LST within 10 to 12 days before the earthquakes occurred, which was consistent with an anomaly observed in OLR on July 29, 2012. The LST results were identical to the AT analysis as well. According to the authors, this highlights the importance of potential corresponding precursors for seismologists. The authors note that additional research on other methods, data types, and statistical analyses should still be conducted.
Author’s note: Mohamed and others (2021) used Terra MODIS Daily LST Version 6 data. LP DAAC has since released Terra MODIS Version 6.1 data. The corresponding data product can be found at doi:10.5067/MODIS/MOD11A1.061.
References
Publication Reference
Mohamed, E., Gahalaut, V., Sekertekin, A., and Inyurt, S., 2021, Atmospheric, ionospheric and Earth-related variations associated with the 11th August 2012 earthquakes, Ahar, Iran: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, v. 216, article 105595, at doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105595.
Image Reference
MOD11A1 data access via AppEEARS.
AppEEARS Team. (2021). Application for Extracting and Exploring Analysis Ready Samples (AppEEARS). Ver. 2.61. NASA EOSDIS Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC), USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA. Accessed June 25, 2021. https://lpdaacsvc.cr.usgs.gov/appeears
Data Granule IDs
MOD11A1.A2012208.h21v05.006.2016115095248
MOD11A1.A2012208.h22v05.006.2016115095252
Wan, Z., S. Hook, G. Hulley. MOD11A1 MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006. 2015, distributed by NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC. Accessed June 25, 2021.